EuroLeague 2026-27 Power Rankings: Panathinaikos on top, the Dubai mystery, and the defending champion's arena problem

Opening On the first day of the new season, from an apartment overlooking Biscayne Bay in Miami, I reopened the first EuroLeague Power Rankings that a colleague in Europe had just sent me. One line made me pause far longer than the rest: Olympiacos, the reigning champion, will not play a true home game until close to the playoffs. They still train at the familiar SEF facility, but every home game must be staged at AEK's arena. It sounds like a minor logistical detail. But in elite basketball, where stands are designed to press on every dribble, being "home yet not at home" is a genuine tactical variable. I have sat through enough games in temporary arenas to understand that the feeling of a familiar court is not in the name on the sign, but in the familiar shooting angle, the direction of light, the echo of the roof when the stands erupt. A European champion changing arenas mid-season is like a pianist having the piano swapped mid-performance. Early-season power rankings are where stories like this get compressed into a single ranking number. It is convenient, it is tidy, and it is easy to be misled by. That is why I decided to dissect this ranking in my own way: not by reading the position, but by reading the assumptions standing behind it. Context Early-season power rankings are the easiest way to present expectations about each team, based more on theory than on reality. Preseason games offer a hint, but the season is a marathon, and once the ball is officially rolling, power rankings lose their usefulness — because the standings become a far more objective measure. This may change in 2027, when the EuroLeague is expected to split into two conferences. For this season, this is the picture of the teams at the starting line, and also the only Power Rankings Eurohoops will publish all season. When following the EuroLeague, I always remind my readers of one thing: a European season is not like an NBA season. There are fewer games, each game carries more weight, and the gap in quality between teams lies within a very narrow band. In a competition where every round can decide a playoff berth, a team that is strongest on paper being eliminated because of a three-week injury is something that happens every year. That is why early power rankings are not a verdict. They are a starting point for debate. I once made the mistake of trusting a ranking absolutely. In 2026, on a live broadcast, I declared that one national team's tactical system would completely dominate in the knockout stage. The result was the opposite. Hundreds of critical comments poured in, and I learned that the most dangerous thing for an analyst is not a lack of data, but confusing data with one's own beliefs. The mistake of 2026 taught me a lesson: the wisest person is not the one who is always right, but the one who knows they can be wrong. So, when reading this power ranking, I will clarify two things from the start. First, I do not treat the position as truth. Second, I will point out what is verified fact and what is a hypothesis waiting to be disproven. That is the only way an analysis keeps its value after the season ends. The leap of theory: why Panathinaikos is still on top At the top of the ranking is Panathinaikos. The team has just endured a preseason full of trouble with countless injuries, but they are still ranked number one for a very simple reason: this is the most expensive team of the season, with a coach of legendary status, and they target the very top. When we talk about pure strength on paper, that is the definition of it. I want readers to look closely at the structure of Panathinaikos before nodding at this ranking. A team that spends the most in the league usually shares one trait: depth built to withstand injuries. But money has never automatically turned into wins, especially in Europe, where a team thrown into dysfunction by salaries can collapse faster than a poor but cohesive one. The real question for Panathinaikos is not "do they have enough talent," but "can they turn huge money into a stable competitive system over the first four months of the season." Preseason injuries are a worrying signal, but they also need to be weighted properly. In European basketball, the preseason matters more than in the NBA, because there are fewer official games, so each round is worth more. If Panathinaikos enters the season with half the roster not fully fit, this number-one ranking could burn within the first six weeks. I would not be surprised if by November, this very team is the focus of all criticism, despite their enormous budget. What I especially notice is the psychology of a team called the "number one title candidate." I have followed European teams for many years, and the recurring pattern is this: the strongest team on paper in September is usually the most thoroughly analyzed team in January. Opponents learn to exploit them faster than they learn to improve themselves. For a team this expensive, the gap between expectation and reality is where disaster waits. Olympiacos: when the champion has to live as a guest On paper, the champion should start from the top, especially when they keep the same core and may even be stronger with key additions such as Montero. But Olympiacos's biggest issue lies off the court: their home arena will only be ready, perhaps, just before the playoffs. Players will train at their SEF facility, but will have to play home games at AEK's arena. That could cost them. I do not think many people fully grasp the seriousness of this detail. Home advantage in Europe is not about fans singing louder, but about whether a shot from a familiar corner goes in, whether the roof holds the noise or lets it dissolve, whether each player knows exactly the distance from the sideline to the spot where they wait for the ball. Moving from one arena to another mid-season, even if on the same block, breaks these invisible micro-details. If Olympiacos maintains its form, it will be a strong statement about the character of a champion. If they slump in mid-season, I will not rush to blame the tactics. There are seasons where the cause lies in mundane things like arenas, accommodation, and scheduling — and an honest analyst must dare to say so. Real Madrid: a new page under Pedro Martinez Real Madrid won the Super Cup, turned a new page under coach Pedro Martinez, and gained extra motivation after losing the final in Athens. However, the two "eternal" names, Panathinaikos and Olympiacos, still seem to be at least one step ahead of them. The interesting thing about Real Madrid this season is that they enter the competition as hunters, not the hunted. That is a completely different psychological position. A big team that just changed coaches usually goes through a brief "honeymoon" period, when players give everything to prove themselves. But once that period passes, and the first losses arrive, Pedro Martinez's style will be tested under the greatest pressure European basketball can create. The defeat in last season's Athens final is an unhealed wound. Wounds like that usually have two outcomes: they either become a burning motivation, or they become an invisible fear every time the game enters the final minutes. How Real Madrid handles late-game situations in October and November will reveal more than any statistic. Fenerbahçe: in the gray zone of contenders It is hard to imagine Fenerbahçe not being among the top title contenders, but it is also hard to rank them above Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, and Real Madrid. That does not mean they cannot finish above all of them. This is the kind of team that makes me most cautious when analyzing. Fenerbahçe possesses something that other big teams sometimes lack: the ability to surprise in important games. In Europe, a team not ranked among the leaders often has a psychological advantage, because they enter big games without the burden of expectation. I have seen far too many times how this shapes the outcome of an entire season. Dubai: money is not always enough After a somewhat "modest" first season, Dubai did not hesitate to flaunt its financial resources, building a top-level roster aiming at least for the Final Four. This team's problem is the flights across Europe and spending most of your time on a plane is no easy feat. Moreover, if tensions in the Iran-Israel conflict escalate, they could end up playing in Sarajevo again. This is the point I want to emphasize, because very few experts talk about it: Dubai's problem is not roster quality, but the geometry of the schedule. Each long flight not only takes away rest time, but also takes away muscle recovery and clarity in tactical decisions. In a league where the line between winning and losing is decided by the smallest details, accumulated fatigue is the quietest enemy. I believe Dubai can reach the Final Four. I also believe they can collapse entirely if the schedule and geopolitics turn against them. This is the team with the highest variance in the entire ranking, and that makes them the most fascinating analytical subject of the season. Žalgiris and the math of a "short" league In a league full of "short" lineups, having a center like Jonas Valančiūnas can make a huge difference. Even with less firepower on the court, Žalgiris is usually in the playoff race, and this season they are more than just an underdog. This is exactly the case where intuition and data must be clearly separated. Intuition says a small team like Žalgiris struggles to compete with the giants. But data on roster structure tells the opposite story. Amid a sea of data, intuition remains the only source code that cannot be debugged, and I have learned that the best intuition is intuition verified by concrete numbers. Hapoel, Red Star Belgrade, and brutal playoff races Hapoel has a deep roster, and despite the off-court noise surrounding them, they reached the playoffs last season and are expected to be back. Of course, the fact that they play home games in Bulgaria must be taken into account, and that was more than a decisive factor in last season's playoff series against Real Madrid. The Serbian team has a chance to reach the playoffs, having already taken part in the play-in last season. After dominating the Basketball Champions League, coach Ibon Navarro has a great opportunity to make a mark in the EuroLeague, while also having the right "tools" in the roster to do so. In addition, the home advantage is more than obvious when playing in Belgrade. I once had the chance to talk with a local analyst in the Balkans and realized how underrated the power of the Belgrade stands is. A packed arena there not only pressures the visiting players, but also pressures the referees. Whistles can change how a game is managed, and in a league where every point is precious as gold, that is worth several road wins. Anadolu Efes: an interesting mix of Pablo Laso and Mike James This is essentially Pablo Laso's first season in Istanbul, with Mike James as the center of the team. It is a very interesting mix, and Efes can once again aim for at least the playoffs. A strong-personality coach combined with a strong-personality player is always a gamble. It can produce the most beautiful attacking basketball in Europe, or it can produce a cold war right inside the locker room. I will watch Mike James's body language in the first losses — that is usually the earliest sign of whether an alliance is sustainable. Valencia: a lesson not forgotten I learned my lesson last season. So, despite big roster changes, I will never underestimate Valencia again. Moreover, there is a feeling that we might see TJ Shorts playing again at the Paris level. That is an important reminder for myself and for readers. Humility is not a lack of confidence. It is confidence that has been tested by failure. Valencia last season proved that an underrated team can make things happen, and that lesson deserves to be remembered longer than a single season. Barcelona and the step back As competition grows ever harsher, Barcelona took a step back this season, and although they will fight for a playoff berth, there is no guarantee they will ultimately make it. This is what I want to emphasize: the decline of a big team is rarely the result of a single decision. It is the result of a series of small decisions, each reasonable at the time it was made, but adding up to a wrong direction. Barcelona this season may not be worse than last season in terms of personnel, but the gap with their rivals has narrowed — and that is far more dangerous. Maccabi Tel Aviv and the question of home The same holds for Maccabi. They are expected to fight for a playoff spot, but is it certain they will make it? If they could play in Tel Aviv, the answer would probably be yes, but not with Belgrade as their home. This is the silent tragedy of some European teams in recent years: they are stripped of part of their identity by factors beyond basketball's control. A team not allowed to play in its true home is like a writer stripped of their mother tongue. They can still write, but every sentence is heavier. The drama-filled team of last season Another team has, on paper, improved, and its roster is at playoff level. However, that has been this team's story in recent years, and in a way, partly due to persistent injury misfortune, they ultimately stayed out. So I must be cautious, even if they have what it takes to go further. ASVEL and Tony Parker's challenge on the bench Everyone will follow ASVEL to see Tony Parker's first season as a coach. What is certain is that this is not the roster Parker had in mind at the start of the summer, and even a playoff presence seems distant. This is one of the most compelling human-interest stories. A legendary player moving into a coaching role always faces the same temptation: expecting that what worked for them will work for others. But elite basketball rarely works that way. I will watch how Parker reacts after the first losses, because that is when a coach's true nature is revealed. Bayern Munich and the path of sustainable building Despite the heavy name, Bayern is trying to build something sustainable without spending too much. Still, Anton Gavel is a first-class coach, and he may even manage to build something with limited resources. I especially appreciate projects like this, because they remind us that basketball is not decided by money alone. A good coach can turn a modest roster into an efficient machine, though their ceiling will be limited by resources. Paris and rebuilding on expectation Paris thinks like Bayern, and the plan worked with Splitter on the bench and TJ Shorts having an MVP-level season. That roster was raided two summers ago, and Paris is trying again to build something that defies expectations, hoping everyone will contribute more than expected. Beşiktaş and the shock of stepping up On paper, Beşiktaş could be higher and is expected to be a formidable team. However, the EuroLeague is an entirely different story from the EuroCup, and if you do not spend, even excessively, on players in your first season at the top level, things can become extremely difficult. Baskonia and the goal of avoiding last place Baskonia will have a few flashes, but their main goal remains avoiding last place, while competition at every level takes another step forward. Virtus Bologna: avoiding becoming a punching bag On paper, Virtus probably has the weakest roster in the entire EuroLeague, and despite their history, their main goal is not to become a punching bag for opponents. Two deviations that the data has not told After going through the entire ranking, I want to pause on two points where, in my view, early power rankings usually make systematic errors. The first concerns Dubai. Rankings usually evaluate a team by total roster quality, but ignore the geometry of the schedule. A team that must fly tens of thousands of kilometers every month is not on the same level as a team sitting still in Europe, even if on paper they are equally matched. This is a kind of blind spot that traditional data cannot capture, because it requires information about sleep, nutrition, and recovery — things that rarely appear in statistical tables. The second concerns Olympiacos and Hapoel, teams playing in arenas that are not really their homes. In a league where home advantage can be worth several wins, losing that advantage is a loss not recorded in any number. I believe that in the future, analysts will need to build a separate index for "true home advantage," because the gap between "home on paper" and "home in reality" is growing ever wider. The viewer sees the result. The reader sees the process. The one who understands sees both. And I believe a power ranking is only useful when it helps us see the process behind the result. What I could be wrong about I always reserve a section for the possibility that I am wrong, and this season too. First, I may overrate the influence of home and scheduling. European basketball has seen many teams play well on neutral courts, and perhaps I am exaggerating a detail coaches have long handled. Second, I may underrate the power of money. Dubai has the resources to solve almost any logistical problem, including chartering private jets and a private medical team. If they manage that, my argument about schedule geometry weakens significantly. Third, I may be wrong about Panathinaikos. A wealthy team with a legendary coach may overcome the injury phase faster than I predict, and their number-one ranking may be convincingly justified when the season closes. I mention these things not to defend myself, but because I believe an honest analysis must dare to bet on its own uncertainty. Final reflection Early power rankings are a map drawn with belief. They tell us what experts believe, not what will happen. Basketball is not just numbers. It is the stories numbers cannot tell — the story of a champion living as a guest, of a wealthy team stuck between time zones, of a legendary player learning the trade from scratch on the bench. Every star has had a moment of silence before shining. My job is to listen to that silence, and your job is to verify everything I have just said yourself. The season has only just begun, and the first ranking has never been the last. If by April I am still right about Olympiacos's arena problem and Dubai's variance, I will be glad I saw it coming. And if I am wrong, I will be the first to admit it. We see what others do not — but we have also seen things that were not there. That is why I keep writing.